Der Klassiker: Why Borussia Dortmund can beat Bayern Munich

Dortmund arrive in Munich with a credible route to an upset: an unbeaten start, the Bundesliga’s strongest defence and a Bayern side dealing with injuries and a touchline absence. None of that makes Der Klassiker predictable. But it gives Niko Kovač’s team more than hope to work with.

Dortmund have built a strong start

After seven matches, Borussia Dortmund are one of only two unbeaten teams in the division; Bayern Munich are the other. Five wins and two draws make this Dortmund’s best league opening since 2023/24, when they had the same record before losing to Bayern on Matchday 9.

Their last better start came in 2017/18: six wins and a draw from the first seven. That history offers encouragement, though it also comes with a reminder that a good opening run doesn’t settle a Klassiker. Still, the current form gives Kovač’s side reason to travel confidently.

A defence built to frustrate Bayern

Bayern have scored 25 league goals this season. Dortmund, meanwhile, have conceded just four in seven matches and kept five clean sheets. That’s the clearest argument for an away win: if BVB can limit the chances Bayern create, they can make the hosts work for every goal.

The defensive record stretches back beyond this season. Dortmund allowed 34 goals across the 2025/26 campaign, two fewer than Bayern. This term, their opponents’ expected goals total is only 5.85, the lowest in the Bundesliga, and they’ve given up just three clear-cut chances. Those figures suggest the clean sheets aren’t simply down to luck.

Gregor Kobel has helped make the numbers stick, saving 82 per cent of the shots he has faced. Against Bayern’s attack, Dortmund will need both his form and the organisation in front of him.

Bayern have vulnerabilities, but the opportunity is temporary

Bayern remain dangerous, but they haven’t opened this season as fluently as last year, when they won their first seven league games. They’ve already drawn twice this time around, and injuries have complicated preparations for Der Klassiker.

Luis Díaz, part of Bayern’s attacking trio, is set to miss out. Jamal Musiala could also be unavailable. Aleksandar Pavlović and Manuel Neuer have had fitness concerns; even if they’re cleared to play, it’s uncertain whether they’ll be at full sharpness.

There’s another disruption on the sideline. Head coach Vincent Kompany will be absent, leaving assistant Aaron Danks to deputise again. Dortmund’s chance is clear enough: bring their defensive discipline to Munich and make Bayern feel the absences.

Dortmund have the tools to trouble Bayern

Dortmund’s away record gives them a real platform in Der Klassiker. They’ve yet to lose on the road in the Bundesliga this season and were beaten only three times away in 2025/26. Their late-season run was strong, too: one defeat in six trips to top German sides at the end of 2024/25, followed by clean sheets in three of their last four away league games. At the Allianz Arena, they’ve lost just once in their past three visits. That’s enough to make Bayern take them seriously, though it doesn’t guarantee the same result this time. The attacking depth is just as relevant. Serhou Guirassy has scored twice in seven Bundesliga appearances, a modest return by his standards. But four goals in three UEFA Champions League matches show why he remains Dortmund’s headline threat when the opposition gets tougher. Fabio Silva has found a productive connection with Guirassy: the Guinea international has assisted both of Silva’s league goals. Silva has four goals across all competitions already, more than he managed throughout last season. Maximilian Beier leads Dortmund for Bundesliga goal contributions, with two goals and two assists, while six players in the squad have scored at least twice in all competitions. That spread matters. If Bayern focus on Guirassy, Dortmund have other routes to hurt them. The numbers don’t tell us exactly how those options will shape the match, but they do make Dortmund harder to contain than a one striker team. For a side with this kind of away record, that’s a credible basis for believing they can make another close contest of it.