These observations — where I look at Real Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be found here.
Just over two years ago, in January of 2024, Arda Güler — after an injury-riddled start to his Real Madrid career — finally made his debut for the club in a Copa del Rey match against Arandina. Güler hit the post with a deadly free-kick, and pulled strings in attack. It was against a weak opponent, but there was excitement around his game and what he could become.
Güler’s progress has increasingly trended north since that match. Even though his cameos were brief and few that season, he always impressed in his limited minutes. By the end of his first season, in admittedly a tiny sample size, Güler led Europe in goals + assists per 90, because every single five minute cameo was met with some kind of magical instant offensive production. Güler wasted no time, and didn’t blame lack of playing time for anything — he treated every second like it was a mission to prove himself. Any excuse about ‘lack of rhythm’ or ‘lack of playing time’ was put in a coffin.
This past season, Güler started on fire as a key creator in Xabi Alonso’s system. The Turk was dominant slinging through balls — mainly to Kylian Mbappe — and he racked up assists as a result. Before his season-ending injury in April, Güler had created the most chances per 90 (3.68) in Europe’s Big Five leagues. Had he stayed healthy the whole season, he could’ve led La Liga in assists. (Güler was only two assists shy of Lamine Yamal’s 11 assists, which was the most in the league.)
Güler has taken a leap every season, with the ultimate leap coming in 2025 – 2026: A disastrous Real Madrid landmine with explosions going off every two minutes — locker-room bust ups, a coaching carousel, eliminations in all three competitions, ACL injuries, and a second consecutive trophyless haul while Barcelona closed off back-to-back league titles by winning El Clasico and lifting the trophy in front of their arch rivals.
It is hard to say where Güler (and by extension, the team) would’ve been had Alonso stuck around until the end of the season, but credit needs to be given to Güler himself for impressing with all five of his past / current coaches regardless of what was asked of him: Ancelotti, Alonso, Alvaro Arbeloa, Vincenzo Montella, Jorge Jesus.
Alonso made Güler a hub in the build-up phase. When Arbeloa was hired, Güler initially struggled to find his feet, deployed in the same line as Jude Bellingham, trying to co-exist as a double 8 alongside him.
But eventually he found his rhythm, and in order for him to do so, he had to adapt again, thriving in a deeper role to help pull strings.
In order for Bellingham and Güler — two stars who thrive in the 10 role — to truly co-exist, one of them will have to play deeper. That could be a tough sell to either of them. Despite both being capable, the light shines brightest to the one playing behind the attacker who slings assists and gets involved in the attack.
Some of that problem can be by-passed with a high pressing scheme where almost everyone loads up in the final third and opportunities are dispersed. But Real Madrid rarely play that way, and if they sit deeper, only so many players can join the transition attack while most of them stay in deeper zones.
Though, despite many of Güler’s own fans feeling like he should be the team’s 10, in a blueprint that is coded around him, Güler himself does like to play in those deeper zones as it gets him more touches on the ball.
“I can adapt to any position,” Güler told me last summer. “If the team needs me on the wing I can play there, but for me it’s better if I play in midfield because from there I can touch the ball more.”
Güler has become a master of creating chances out of thin air:
Part of the brilliance of Güler is that he will reward you if you make a good run. Even if the passing lane is tight and difficult to execute, he has an elite ability to combine his vision and passing ability to snap his fingers and get the ball from point A to point B.
Güler is hyper alert and quick with his brain and feet. He is decisive with his touches. No need to overcomplicate the flow of the game when just one touch will suffice.
He can use his reading of the game to win the ball and kickstart attacks:
Güler was one of the players over the course of four mammoth Champions League knockout games (Manchester City twice, Bayern Munich twice) that acted as source of oxygen for the team — a release valve when the team was under a press. When he got on the ball, he allowed the team to breathe.
He’s been impressive finding the space behind pressure:
There’s no reason why Güler can’t be at the very top of assist charts and chance creation metrics for the next several years. He’s built for playing the final ball and rewarding players who make the right runs.
But he would benefit more from having more runners in the box — something Real Madrid generally lack with the current profile of players. Transition football and high pressing (the latter only at the beginning of the season) benefited Güler and his synergy with Mbappe. Güler is a wizard at playing a ball behind space when defenses are hedged high, and in the chaos of winning the ball high up the pitch, his quick thinking and quick feet find the right pass more often than not.
Lower blocks are more challenging to thrive in with the way Real Madrid play. While Güler himself is a problem solver against low blocks, he needs runners, and too often his teammates are stationed outside the box with no one to hit with a goal-scoring chance. Those are problems Mourinho will have to solve.
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Güler’s secret sauce is his ability to hold the ball without turning it over. Very rarely, and I mean very rarely, does he lose possession cheaply. Güler is in the 95th percentile among all players in Europe in turnovers while also ranking in the 91st percentile in xG assists — meaning he creates chances at an elite clip while also taking care of the ball. That’s very rare territory to be in, as generally the riskier the pass, the higher chance of turning it over. That’s what made Toni Kroos so great — boasting a high passing percentage while playing with verticality and spraying passes into the final third. Güler is approaching that territory now, although, to be clear, Kroos is unparalleled, and anyone approaching him simply means they orbit from a distance.
What makes those numbers even more impressive is Güler’s rise in big games. Being elite against La Liga mid-table teams, or low-profile Champions League teams is one thing. Güler looked unnerved even against teams like Bayern and City in do-or-die games — putting to bed the criticism from earlier in the season that he ‘was not a big game player’.
Güler has also become underrated defensively, with so much of the dialogue circling around him being that he is unable to keep up on the defensive end.
But some of that criticism is misguided, though some of it is true: Güler is not imposing physically and can be outmatched by stronger players.
But Güler is a reliable work horse who presses efficiently, and ranks in the 82nd percentile among all players (across all positions) in pressures. He’s also strong on the ball and can carry it through traffic.
He has good defensive positioning, and he has a good knack of providing help defense and knowing when to double up on certain players:
Güler safeguards possession in tricky zones. Some of his touches when surrounded by multiple defenders reminds me of a left-footed Isco. Here is a longer sequence where you can see that version of him, in deeper zones and tight spaces:
It will be interesting to see how Jose Mourinho’s arrival affects Güler. There are some question marks that come up, though, mostly good questions that will mould the team into Mourinho’s vision:
- Mourinho loves Jude Bellingham. They have a great relationship off the pitch and it would not be surprising to see the scheme built around him. The position of the ‘10’ comes and goes as football changes from era to era. Mourinho has kept the 10 baked into his system for the better part of the past two decades. If Bellingham is the star piece, can Güler continue to thrive in a deeper role?
- Not a question but more of a remark: Holding off on Nico Paz for another year is in part a bet on Güler and how much Real Madrid believe in him. As great as Paz is, having to fit all three of Paz, Güler, and Bellingham into the starting XI would’ve been challenging. Though in many ways you can view next season as a tryout of sorts: Will Güler continue to impress? Will Paz continue to impress? A future spot could be on the line.
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- How will Bernardo Silva’s arrival affect Güler? My guess is that it’s mostly positive. While some may see Silva as a threat, the reality is that Silva — at this stage of his career — is more of an insurance policy. Last season, Güler was the only player Real Madrid could rely on to drop deep to dictate tempo unless Bellingham was slotted in as an 8. With Silva, Real Madrid now have more options, and Mourinho can bring Silva in off the bench if he feels Güler’s energy starts waning in the second half. That’s a luxury Real Madrid didn’t have last season. Silva should be able to slot in to inject Real Madrid with oxygen in key moments, allowing Güler to go throttle while being offered rest during key stretches of the season.
So far in his career, Güler has gotten better in each season he’s played, without exception. Will that trajectory continue? How will he bounce back from a disappointing World Cup? How will Mourinho, who tried to bring Güler back to Fenerbache once upon a time, further develop his career and get the best out of him?
